LTTE's Next Big Move - More Air Power?

Since the abortive LTTE air strikes over Trincomalee, unconfirmed reports have emerged to the effect that the LTTE is building a longer and wider runway somewhere near Kilinochchi. The air strike itself was uncharacteristically short and it is reasonable to believe the attack might have been a precursor to a wider and more comprehensive attack planned for the future. If the reports about the new runway is in fact true, the possibilities of a major attack involving LTTE aircrafts - possibly ones the security forces have no intelligence about or are not in the hands of the LTTE as of yet - is probable.

A major air attack by the LTTE could unravel in many ways. One possibility is that a larger, faster aircraft, even a jet, could be brought from abroad. The new runway could be used to make a stop to arm and refuel before taking off to attack a potentially significant target such a government leader or a military installation. Another possibility is that the LTTE will acquire a Sri Lanka Air Force plane in a surprise attack on a base and use the aircraft to attack a vulnerable target. The new runway - if in fact is in existence by then - will be used to safely land the attack craft in the LTTE controlled territory.

Another worrying aspect to these possibilities is that Karuna - the leader of breakaway faction - recently said it is possible that the LTTE may possess chemical weapons. If true, the LTTE could use this in an aerial attack causing immeasurable damage to the government troops or civilians. According to military experts, Sri Lankan security forces have no or limited training on chemical warfare.

The runway that is rumoured to be developed by the LTTE could have a very different use altogether. According to people familiar with the security situation in Sri Lanka, the runway may be part of a contingency plan for the LTTE leadership to escape should Killinochchi fall into the hands of the security forces. Given the recent progress the government troops have made, there is a strong possibility that Prabhakaran has made arrangements to have himself flown out of the island; and since it is unlikely that neighboring India will welcome him with open arms, the destination may very well be a distant country - flying to which will require an aircraft that is significantly bigger than what is available in the LTTE's make-believe air force. An aircraft, that will need a longer and wider runway to land.